No, America has changed decisively. Even if the Dems were able to find a credible leader AND get past the fascist internet AND reclaim the keys, they would find a shattered government machine that had been degraded or privatised and have to somehow wrestle control back from wealthy people with paramilitary protection who didn’t even recognise their authority.
It is now a ‘freelance’ state who will cut deals whenever and with whoever. If millions of people are murdered or displaced or borders redrawn as the vacuum is filled by more seasoned tyrants then so be it. I can think of at least 20 different regional theatres around the planet where borders could easily be redrawn overnight with zero deterrence or heavyweight opposition.
Yes, US foreign policy was applied to catastrophic neocon effect in the past but there is one big difference. American public opinion right up until the 2000s all consumed the same media. Yes there were partisan biases but everybody could see the same Reuters images of napalm or body bags or burning towers when they turned on cable tv. It meant political leaders had to answer to public opinion in a way they didn’t in the dictatorships.
But now that has changed too. There is no shocking news story that will bring all Americans to the same TV images because so much fragmented digital media (and not just in the US) is wacko conspiracy for clicks or 24h disinformation (ie lies) a real time Goebbels wet dream in mass communication. The scariest thing of all?
I think (would hope anyway) the British are too cynical to go with Farage. The danger is the tendency of other politicians from the established parties trying to appeal to his crowd.
If Musk gets involved with funding then anything could happen though.
There’s a chance Reform will swallow up the Tories who look really screwed now to become the second party but Tories will fight on, even on around 15%. While the right are divided Labour will always have chance.
Im way more optimistic. The Tories are completely unelectable for 10 years given their recent abysmal record and dearth of serious people at the top of their party now - and if they form a pact with Reform they may as well just shut up shop, so I’d be astonished if they did that.
I know there’s a lot of media and social media noise about Labour being a disaster but I’ll stick with my fundamentals - if the economy has grown over five years, people feel a little better off, interest rates are no higher or lower, and public services are improving, Labour will be re elected. Most or all of these things are very possible. Plus Trump will remain deeply unpopular in the UK and Farage is closely tied to his fortunes, which is hugely risky. In fact, Trump won’t even be President any more if the next election is July 2029 so Farage won’t even have that. Lastly, what are Reform promising beyond a protest vote? They might win council seats and even the odd parliamentary by election but that doesn’t mean anything come a GE. I’d say a Labour / Lib Dem coalition is much more likely than Farage ever becoming PM.
Time and time again British people prove they are vindictive, small minded and as long as someone else is worse off than they are, that’s all that matters.
Add in radicalisation via Facebook and the ‘silent majority’ of Britain is awful IMO
As Sid Vicious once said ‘I’ve met the man in the street… he’s a cunt’
The phrase to watch out for is “AngloFuturism”. We will start to hear it more. Farage is the canary in the mine. The next wave of populist/more electable candidates will take up the broader Reform mantle and ally it to a more coherent vision/philosophy of the U.K. as a modern player in the world. Unless Labour can evidence significant growth in the economy and a vastly improved vibe in the U.K., by the time of the next election, it will be hard for many to resist a shiny new option. I don’t believe that will be Farage, but it will be someone with a right wing, populist agenda. Good times, eh?
There’s definitely a sizable element that will go for Farage. It could also work in Labours favour if he splits the Tory vote. If Labour manage to not completely fuck things up they might be ok.
As was mentioned above, if they can create some stability and a sense that things havent got worse that might be enough for some.
i dont’ think he will, because he doesn’t have the charisma for it. not like trump, not like boris.
the notion of the extremely right wing true believers gaining ground isn’t without merit, but i think the real faction in play is the swath of people who don’t particularly feel one way or the other, but really want to watch shit get crazy and blow up. anything - anything as long as it’s not boring.
in the US, the next leader on the democratic side will not come from congress or state government or even anything like TV punditry or philanthropy. i’d guess that they come from tech money or pro sports.
that big swing swath of voters that i’m talking about? they hate the idea of steady hands and competence, they want to believe that whoever’s next is gonna take a big swing at global influence without the burden of previous experience or decorum.